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As Market Roundup fans will know, we have repeatedly referred to bond yields to illustrate that the scare-mongering around impending hyper-inflation was always something of a crock.
The fact is that deleveraging continues apace and deflation is the beast in
Giles Johnston began his career on the floor of the Stock Exchange, during the Big Bang in 1986, trading for Nat-West markets.
However, we are not hanging up our bear suits just yet. A significant technical warning sign is currently flashing in the shape of divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial and Transport indices.
Inevitably, the Chinese construction and real estate boom may well be over. The knock-on effect will have global implications, for example, a falling demand for iron ore, copper, lumber and manpower. Losses on real estate-related investment will damage consumer confidence and undermine the domestic demand for Western imports.
From a technical perspective, all will be revealed very soon. There is a significant triangle formation in progress, the breakout of which will determine the direction of the market until Santa appears in the fireplace.
Since last we met, the US Dollar has broken out to the upside of the trading range within which it had been languishing for the past six months. Of course, the Eurozone crisis is positive for the Dollar and Kevin does not discount the possibility that we could see Euro/Dollar parity over the long term.
But surely the Dollar is a basket case? Everybody knows that.
We began the month with the stock market putting in a sterling run up on the news that an insolvent country with debts that can never be repaid, whose Government gives a nod and a wink to widespread tax-avoidance and endemic corruption is going to be lent more money. Fakelaki all round.
Alex’s trading methodologies are based upon market structure, the Commitment Of Traders report, cross asset analysis, sentiment analysis and pattern recognition.
In this presentation, Alex discusses:
Trader competency strategies
Four steps needed to transition into full-time profess
The gold rally in early June failed to make a new high and silver and copper are also displaying signs of technical weakness along with most of the commodity sectors.
It looks as though a lot of market participants have been taking note of the old adage - Sell In May And Go Away.
The silver bubble has well and truly popped for the time being at least and, although gold is not quite as bubblicious, the shine of 'the only real currency' has also been dulled somewhat by the recent market action.
Our old friend the US Dollar is still in the doldrum
This evening, we examine these questions and look at ways that we as traders and investors can protect and grow our portfolios in these 'exciting' times. We are now in uncharted territory; could this actually be a once-in-a-lifetime trading opportunity?